‘El Niño’ brings rain, but no typhoon

Through an extensive network, the SMG get’s constant information about temperature, wind pressure and rain, which allows to issue alert levels to the public if necessary, António Viseu explains

Experts are predicting rain to increase by 20 to 30 percent this summer, as the typhoon season starts and finishes later than usual, deputy director of the Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG), António Viseu told Macau Daily Times.
Although Macau’s tropical storm and typhoon season usually starts in May, the bureau is yet to issue a tropical alert this year. “Presently, we are in a so-called neutral situation, because Macau’s weather was under the influence of the climate pattern ‘El Niño’ in the first half of the year. That means less tropical storms and more rain,” he explained.
The first typhoon to affect Macau in 2010 was expected to hit around June, but so far nothing has happened. “This year, we are forecasting four typhoons, while the annual average is 6,” Viseu said.
According to the SMG deputy director, maybe only one or two out of the four predicted typhoons will result in a level 8 alert.
“The first of the season has already developed in the Pacific, in May. But it didn’t last long – less than a day,” he added.
‘El Niño’ is characterised by warming of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation, which relates to changes in surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. ‘La Niña’ is the opposite phenomenon, characterised by cooling of surface waters.
Since ‘El Niño” was discovered, it is easier to forecast typhoons and tropical storms, Viseu explained. Still, he continued, despite all the tools available nowadays, it continues to be a hard job.
Every year, in March, meteorological bureaus of Macau, Hong Kong and Guangdong gather to discuss the typhoon forecast for the rest of the year. “The weather has no boundaries. Therefore it is normal for the meteorological community to gather very often,” he said.
“That’s very important for our job. Especially for Macau, which is a very small territory. A big cloud is enough to cover all the sky,” the official said.
Usually, the Hong Kong observatory issues warnings before SMG does. Viseu explained that it has to do with the geographical location of both special administrative regions.
“Tropical storms develops in the Pacific and they get closer to Hong Kong before Macau. For that reason it is normal that Hong Kong issues the warnings first,” he concluded.