Analists comment on Wikicables: Chief Executive succession talk premature

Most analysts believe only a catastrophe would stop Fernando Chui Sai On from securing a second term, which would make room for other candidates to run in 2019

Leaked US diplomatic cables might discuss possible successors to the current Chief Executive (CE) but local personalities told Macau Daily Times any talk is for the moment premature.
Most believe only a catastrophe would stop Fernando Chui Sai On from securing a second term, which would make room for other candidates to run in 2019.
Although Chui was only sworn-in in December 2009 a cable sent from the Consulate General of the US in Hong Kong to the US Department of State just two months later already discussed the “next generation Macau leadership”.
The document said the race to succeed the current CE is wide open, an opinion shared by most personalities who talked to MDTimes.
“Chui Sai On still has three years ahead so it’s far too early to think about possible candidates,” said former lawmaker Jorge Fão. “In the meantime other people who are currently not mature enough leaders might find their way onto the political radar.”
The president of the Macau Lawyers Association, Jorge Neto Valente, downplayed the relevance of the cables released last week by whistle-blower website WikiLeaks.
“It has no significance, although it’s always interesting to know the analysis that people make at certain moments. The fact is certain that some analysis is very well done and others aren’t.”
The cables claim lawmaker Chan Meng Kam and Executive Council member Lionel Leong Vai Tac are the two main candidates.
The president of the Macau Civil Servants Association and lawmaker José Pereira Coutinho disagrees: “I was surprised to hear those two names. I think they have minimal chances in the current electoral structure.”

‘Other people who are currently not mature enough leaders might find their way onto the political radar [before 2019]’ - Jorge Fão

“Chan Meng Kam has supporters but I don’t know if he has this ambition” of becoming CE, said the New Macau Association president, Jason Chao.
The more serious candidates are likely to put all their chips on the 2019 elections, said Eilo Yu Wing Yat, a public administration professor at the University of Macau. “That would mean more time to increase their political capital and establish their reputation and support, both among the elite and at the grassroots level.”
Chui Sai On’s successor “will never be anyone close to either Chui or the local business elite,” said the international politics expert Arnaldo Gonçalves. “The political situation is mature enough in Beijing to have a much bigger say in picking the next Chief Executive.”

WikiLeaks ‘has no significance (…).The fact is certain that some analysis is very well done and others aren’t’ - Jorge Neto Valente

Chui again?

Most observers believe Chui Sai On is sure to run for a second term at the head of the MSAR in 2014, just like his predecessor Edmund Ho Hau Wah.
“That’s what common sense and past experience tells me,” said former lawmaker Rui Afonso. “Let’s see if anyone will dare to run against him,” he added.
Chui Sai On ran unopposed for the July 2009 elections and “all signs point to” him running again in three years’ time, said Executive Council member Leonel Alves.
Arnaldo Gonçalves is more cautious: “We don’t know if he [Chui Sai On] will run again. He takes his decisions in a very mature way and only moves forward when his mind is perfectly made up. Gonçalves believes a decision will only be made public in late 2013 or early 2014.

‘If Macau wants to be an international, open and transparent city, it must nominate a public servant that clearly dissociates himself from the business sector’ - José Pereira Coutinho

The US diplomatic cable claims, “Should Chui fail as CE, he may not get a second term”. For instance, Jason Chao recalled, the first chief executive of HKSAR, Tung Chee Hwa, resigned just three years into his second term.
Although Tung said he was stepping down for health reasons, “everyone knows it was due to a loss of credibility,” said Chao, as Hong Kong faced a period of high unemployment and deflation.
But with the gaming industry fuelling an economic boom a similar scenario is “highly unlikely” in Macau, the pan-democrat admitted. “Beijing will only intervene if something goes terribly wrong,” he added.

‘Beijing will only intervene [in the MSAR Chief Executive election] if something goes terribly wrong’ - Jason Chao

Chui Sai On’s first term so far received a positive mark from local personalities. “He has done an excellent job as the head of the MSAR,” said Leonel Alves.
Jorge Fão is more lukewarm: “He could have done more but it’s not like he has done a bad job. He has tried to listen to everyone’s opinion.”
Chui Sai On’s performance “is ok,” said Eilo Yu Wing Yat. “He has been able to maintain a stable society and deal with the circumstances.”

Empty corruption

However, if the CE goes for a second term, “renewing his team of secretaries could become an issue,” said Arnaldo Gonçalves. “Some have been in place for over a decade so it’s natural for them to face a degree of political weariness.”
According to the US cable the biggest threat for Chui Sai On would be another corruption scandal, similar to the one that involved disgraced secretary for Transport and Public Works, Ao Man Long.

A 2019 bid ‘would mean more time to increase their [candidates’] political capital and establish their reputation and support’ - Eilo Yu Wing Yat

The impact of such a case “would greatly depend on whether there would be direct responsibility from the Administration. We already had one scandal and nothing changed,” Rui Afonso stressed.
“Small corruption happens everywhere in the world,” said Jorge Fão. But the former lawmaker does not expect to see any more big corruption scandals because “Chui [Sai On] himself is much more cautious and watchful”.
“Macau will not have another corruption scandal, of that I’m sure. For Beijing to allow for that to happen would be to lose all chances of using the SAR model to attract Taiwan,” said José Pereira Coutinho.

‘The political situation is mature enough in Beijing to have a much bigger say in picking the next Chief Executive’ - Arnaldo Gonçalves

The Ao Man Long case was triggered by investigations conducted outside of the territory, the former vice-president of the Macau Cultural Institute, Gary Ngai, stressed. “And it was Beijing that gave the order to follow it through,” he added.
Any corruption scandal would “revive the prospects of Prosecutor General Ho Chio Meng,” which the US consulate identified as ‘the sheriff’. But “would he have the courage to open an investigation for another case of corruption?” Gary Ngai questioned.

Unknown sheriff

The July 2009 elections that ultimately saw Chui Sai On run unopposed “was almost a two-man race. In a popular contest, the winner would almost undoubtedly have been Prosecutor Ho Chio Meng,” the US cables claim.

‘All sign points to Chui Sai On running for a second term’ as the head of the Macau Government - Leonel Alves

Edmund Ho “was groomed by both the local elite and the Portuguese Administration for four, five years to become Chief Executive,” said Arnaldo Gonçalves. On the contrary “Chui Sai On simply popped up in the middle of other possible candidates and it’s still unclear why all the others gave up. They must have been pressured to do so,” he added.
But despite his popularity Ho Chio Meng remains almost an unknown. According to US cables he is described as unimpressive by his staff and as ‘lacking substance’ by academics.
“Honestly I’d rather have an unknown than another familiar face all chummy with the employers’ lobby,” said José Pereira Coutinho.
“If Macau wants to continue to be an international, open and transparent city, with the minimum standards on corruption, it must nominate a public servant that clearly dissociates himself from the business sector,” he said.

The impact of another corruption case ‘would greatly depend on whether there would be direct responsibility from the Administration’ - Rui Afonso

But Pereira Coutinho acknowledged that Ho Chio Meng would find it hard to get the necessary support from the CE electoral committee, “unless there was clear backing from Beijing”.54-year-old Ho Chio Meng is considered by the US Consulate “too old” to run for Chief Executive in 2019. Pereira Coutinho disagrees: “I could see him picking up the Administration and Justice portfolio in 2014 before running in 2019.”

The Prosecutor General was favoured in 2009 because “he had privileged personal relations with some members of the Beijing Politburo,” said Arnaldo Gonçalves. But the Chinese ruling party is facing major changes in next year’s elections and “all nine members of the Politburo could step down,” he added.
Ho Chio Meng yesterday tried to downplay the speculation: “The most important thing right now is for me to fulfil my job in the best possible way.” Asked if he would ever run for CE, he said, “Now is not the appropriate time to discuss that.”

‘Would he [Ho Chio Meng] have the courage to open an investigation for another case of corruption?’ - Gary Ngai

‘Now is not the appropriate time to discuss [a possible bid for Chief Executive]’ - Ho Chio Meng