Flagship EU gas pipeline near collapse

Europe’s flagship project to bolster its energy security by building a major gas pipeline to the Caspian that skirts Russia is near collapse, analysts in Ankara say, with a newly confident Turkey playing a key role.
Recent developments, including decisions by Ankara, have undercut the viability of the Nabucco pipeline, a project to ship more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year from the Caspian and beyond to Europe.
Repeated disputes between Russia and Ukraine over transit tariffs that led to supply cuts pushed the EU in 2009 to launch its Southern Gas Corridor initiative, of which Nabucco is the biggest project, to reduce its dependence on Russian gas supplies.
But in December, Turkey gave Russia the green light for its South Stream project to run through its Black Sea waters, with construction of the 63 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year pipeline to start by the end of this year.
“The Nabucco project was in a coma long before the South Stream agreement,” said Necdet Pamir, a former deputy director of Turkey’s TPAO oil company.
“But nobody dares to say Nabucco is already dead,” he told AFP.
Nabucco was to run some 3,900 kilometres (2,400 miles) across Turkey then up through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to reach Austria where it would link up with a major distribution network.
Turkey also signed in December a deal with Azerbaijan to build the Trans-Anatolia Pipeline (TANAP) to carry 10 bcm per year of Azeri gas to European markets, plus 6 bcm for itself, casting further doubt on Nabucco, which is having difficulty getting commitments of gas supplies.
BP forecasts use of gas for power production in industrialised European countries will jump from around 40 percent currently to 60 percent in 2030, with Europe’s import requirements likely to double by 2030 as a result.
Imports accounted for 444 bcm of the 553 bcm of gas the 27 EU member states used 2010, according to Eurostat.